Bubbles Everywhere
Another day, another bubble call. It seems that some very high-profile investors are in a rush to call every outsized move to the upside a bubble. Not only is it a bubble, but it has to pop now, right?
I have made my views pretty clear on the how I view the current market environment as being closer to the start of a cyclical bull market than to the end. This is still my base case. While many people think this is 1999, I think it is more like 1996 or 1997 if we are going to play the analog game.
My friend Andrew Thrasher takes a slightly different view. I like this line at the end of the note: I lean more towards the idea that we are in bubble of some varying size, how it plays out after it’s popped though is anyone’s guess.
Andrew ends the note by sticking to the creed of the technicians by saying “follow price" and I could not agree more. I will add that if everyone thinks there is a big bubble that is about to pop, there probably isn’t.
Here is a look at the iShares MSCI All Country World Index Fund ETF (ACWI). It went sideways since the beginning of 2018. Is this a bubble?
*Nothing in these pages should be considered investment advice.