This Probably Isn't the Top
But That Won't Stop A Lot of People From Trying to Call It!
I am going to try something new here. I write a lot. Six notes a week for my firm’s clients and five notes a week here. It’s actually pretty funny because I do not consider myself to to be a good writer. I have actually toyed with the idea of taking a class…I am open to suggestions if you want to leave them in the comments.
About three - four times a week, I record a video in the middle of the day with my updated thoughts on the markets and what I am seeing, hearing and reading. They go up on the firm’s blog. Yesterday afternoon, I wanted to highlight the fact that I had noticed an uptick in the number of people who I follow, and whose work I like, calling for a bit of cautiousness or even calling a top. I am not going to single anyone out as I have had that done to me by someone recently who did not agree with my views.
The important thing to keep in mind here is that just because I like someone’s work and happen to think that the person is smart, does not mean that I have to agree with them all the time. The other important item that I do consider when someone speaks is to understand their base state…meaning do they tend to default to a bullish or bearish stance at base. There are many people who are always bullish, we call them perma-bulls and there are people who are always bearish who we call perma-bears. We don’t pay attention to either of these groups because if you can’t change your mind, I don’t really want to listen to you. By the way, the person who singled me out on their site admits that he has been bearish on the equity market since 2009…not a type-o. He has been bearish for 12 years. The S&P 500 is up ~322% since the beginning of 2009.
Interestingly, many of the people who are now calling a top or becoming cautious are not perma-bears, but I still disagree. So I recorded a video yesterday about why I don’t think this is the top.
Let me know what you think.
Please remember that nothing that I write here or say in this video should be considered investment advice. Please do your own research.
Dan, I enjoy your blog as the style of writing is consistent with how you communicate in your videos. Your thoughts are straight forward with no mixed messages or potential for wrong interpretations. As you said this is a diary of how you see the market based on the information at the time. Thanks for sharing timely information that is helpful in our investment process.